Try your hand at predicting the future! Predictions is a (bi)annual game run by HODP in which you guess how likely certain events will—or won’t—happen. We’ll calculate your score using our Algorithm™ (just kidding, we’re not Datamatch).
The more certain you are about your guesses, the more points you can possibly win, but you also set yourself up for large losses if your predictions turn out to be incorrect. Can’t think ahead a day, let alone months? Don’t worry — Predictions is completely for fun, although prizes are up for grabs for the top scorers!
A big thank you to FiveThirtyEight, whose annual NFL forecasting game was the inspiration for this project.
Our scoring system is based on the Brier score, which is used to assign scores for categorical events. For questions with more options, you have the chance to earn more points. However, the more extreme your guesses are, the more points you put on the line: you can lose up to 90 points for a single incorrect answer (and yes, you can end up with negative points). If you guess that all events have an equal chance of happening, you’ll get 0 points regardless of the actual outcome.
The scoring system for range-based questions uses a simple model. To win any points, you must have the correct answer within your range. Then, your score is calculated in proportion to how narrow your guess was compared to the maximum range.