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Predictions Game

Try your hand at predicting the future! Predictions is a (bi)annual game run by HODP in which you guess how likely certain events will—or won’t—happen. We’ll calculate your score using our Algorithm™ (just kidding, we’re not Datamatch).

The more certain you are about your guesses, the more points you can possibly win, but you also set yourself up for large losses if your predictions turn out to be incorrect. Can’t think ahead a day, let alone months? Don’t worry — Predictions is completely for fun, although prizes are up for grabs for the top scorers!

A big thank you to FiveThirtyEight, whose annual NFL forecasting game was the inspiration for this project.

Point calculation

For each question, you can earn up to 50 points. However, the more extreme your guesses are, the more points you put on the line: you can lose up to 150 points for a single incorrect answer (and yes, you can end up with negative points). If you guess that an event has a 50% chance of happening, you’ll get 0 points regardless of the actual outcome.

For those interested in the exact scoring system, we calculate your Brier score and scale it between -150 and 50 points, setting 50/50 guesses to yield 0 points.

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