{"componentChunkName":"component---src-templates-project-js","path":"/project/immigration-conservatism/","result":{"data":{"project":{"id":"-9e49abae-f0fc-50eb-bcff-690a72dc8984","publishedAt":"2026-09-03T04:00:00.000Z","categories":[{"_id":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","title":"Article"}],"subjects":[{"_id":"32c1a9c9-8295-4551-8342-1c1be66e849f","title":"Politics"}],"relatedProjects":[],"mainImage":{"crop":null,"hotspot":null,"asset":{"_id":"image-fc35a8c9a2cfc207e107b2bf1a0a52ade23739a2-4032x3024-jpg"},"alt":null},"title":"Immigration and Conservatism","slug":{"current":"immigration-conservatism"},"_rawExcerpt":[{"_key":"1e49f79a6a7d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c1efbe833917","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Given the prevalence of anti-immigration rhetoric from conservative political parties around the world, how do immigration trends affect how well these parties do in their countries' polls and elections?               "}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"_rawBody":[{"_key":"5bb6d2034ee8","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9d585d797a3e","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Introduction   "}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"f7d77bc4b68a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"39628e0122b5","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In many countries where there has been an influx of immigration, what follows is that a conservative or right-wing political party tends to come into power with its staunchly anti-immigration politics. In the United States, the right-wing Republican candidate, Donald Trump, won the 2024 presidential election with a campaign focused on limiting immigration and deporting undocumented immigrants. More recently, Reform UK saw great gains in the number of Councils and Councillors, now with more Councillors than any of the other 5 political parties in England. Similarly, the Reform UK party leader, Nigel Farage, advocated strong anti-immigration policies, including “getting rid of the Human Rights Act” to increase the revocation of many asylum cases. In Germany and Japan, there have been rapid gains by their more conservative parties, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan (did not use Sanseitō because they are too young, founded in 2020)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"fc2937ec2045","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9fafe4443bdb","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Methodology"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"225502c0b49e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d7395e28389f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"For this article, I sourced data on immigration rates over time and on the vote share that conservative or right-wing parties gain in national elections. For each graph, I overlaid net migration on the percent poll share of the right-wing, most anti-immigration political parties in each country. Following those graphs, I calculated the correlation between changes in net migration and the percent poll share of the selected right-wing parties, with a two-year lag. I implemented a two-year lag in calculating the correlation because I found from the visualizations that there was a relationship between the two variables, just that that relationship had an approximately two-year lag associated with it."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"74bd93d7baa3","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"034829540409","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"United Kingdom"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"0fa5639ce2c8","_type":"figure","asset":{"_id":"image-6b6e45aa45bb040c7687c12f8ef0821df3cc9296-2818x1564-png","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"B40XmogJ4unktX6Yqcfl5F","_createdAt":"2026-09-03T21:23:31Z","_updatedAt":"2026-09-03T21:23:31Z","assetId":"6b6e45aa45bb040c7687c12f8ef0821df3cc9296","extension":"png","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","blurHash":"M4Q]$o~q-p^+IU~qkVs:s:kC5PW;_3NakC","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":1.8017902813299234,"height":1564,"width":2818},"hasAlpha":false,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/png;base64,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","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#343434","foreground":"#fff","population":0.02,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#661e34","foreground":"#fff","population":0,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#9a616e","foreground":"#fff","population":0.1,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#d4b0ac","foreground":"#000","population":0.01,"title":"#fff"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#fc9cbc","foreground":"#000","population":0.01,"title":"#fff"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#9a616e","foreground":"#fff","population":0.1,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#d46c8c","foreground":"#fff","population":0,"title":"#fff"}},"thumbHash":"OQgCBIC7WGiHiXhzb2GMZpBpBg=="},"mimeType":"image/png","originalFilename":"image.png","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/6b6e45aa45bb040c7687c12f8ef0821df3cc9296-2818x1564.png","sha1hash":"6b6e45aa45bb040c7687c12f8ef0821df3cc9296","size":273418,"uploadId":"79a458a79657399660cf3c5d767a935fbccdbc01","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/6b6e45aa45bb040c7687c12f8ef0821df3cc9296-2818x1564.png","id":"image-6b6e45aa45bb040c7687c12f8ef0821df3cc9296-2818x1564-png","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"373ad239ed81e4fb77311d9bfc274b5b","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":3964},"parent":null},"caption":"Figure 1."},{"_key":"e063125d4a4f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"1ef37e4508ef","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"When comparing the changes in net migration rates for the UK to the percentage poll share that Reform UK receives, there is a clear positive correlation showing that when net migration increases, the percentage poll share that Reform UK receives increases as well, with a 2-year lag. When I ran a correlation analysis on this relationship, I found a Pearson's r of 0.76, which represents a strong, positive correlation between these two variables. Additionally, this correlation is very statistically significant, with a p-value of 0.0042. What this shows is that there is, in fact, a relationship between migration and the primary right-wing, anti-immigration political party in the UK. This, however, is not fully indicative of a causal relationship between these two variables; that is to say, that an increase in net migration causes greater support for Reform UK, though it is saying that there is a positive relationship between those two variables."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"9b1a050dc3a6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4a5614281b46","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Germany"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"5a8e5a65a6af","_type":"figure","asset":{"_id":"image-17849a932308c4de03bb263ac2382ef96e5eea73-2818x1564-png","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"9sRDX1nhKQ5sYANsnTlf5l","_createdAt":"2026-09-03T21:24:04Z","_updatedAt":"2026-09-03T21:24:04Z","assetId":"17849a932308c4de03bb263ac2382ef96e5eea73","extension":"png","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","blurHash":"M3R3NH~q?b~CNu~qof%3jFkW5QXS_3NbnO","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":1.8017902813299234,"height":1564,"width":2818},"hasAlpha":false,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/png;base64,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","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#1c2c24","foreground":"#fff","population":0,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#602333","foreground":"#fff","population":0,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#c98f9b","foreground":"#000","population":1.04,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#c98f9b","foreground":"#000","population":1.04,"title":"#fff"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#f196a9","foreground":"#000","population":0.14,"title":"#fff"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#9e5e6b","foreground":"#fff","population":0.09,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#c96c84","foreground":"#fff","population":0.01,"title":"#fff"}},"thumbHash":"OQgCBIDaeFiFemiDfmB7hqBoCA=="},"mimeType":"image/png","originalFilename":"image.png","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/17849a932308c4de03bb263ac2382ef96e5eea73-2818x1564.png","sha1hash":"17849a932308c4de03bb263ac2382ef96e5eea73","size":265881,"uploadId":"57640af28b456733d2e4a46253e57502190c5b90","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/17849a932308c4de03bb263ac2382ef96e5eea73-2818x1564.png","id":"image-17849a932308c4de03bb263ac2382ef96e5eea73-2818x1564-png","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"65506e6985862d49ef60db335606884f","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":3965},"parent":null},"caption":"Figure 2."},{"_key":"eb9f1f548138","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"1dc9de785d160","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In the case of Germany, there is also a positive correlation between the two variables analyzed, with Germany having a Pearson's r of 0.42; though weaker than that of the UK, it is still a positive correlation. Although immigration has had its clear spikes in Germany, there is a clear overall increase in support for the AfD, potentially signaling a shift in German politics beyond just immigration. What this positive correlation may indicate is that changes in migration may be a contributing factor to support for AfD, but the lack of statistical significance of this correlation may mean that there are larger forces at play, driving this shift in German politics."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"081d2aeb54a3","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"833c526a820c","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Japan"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"ecdde9e324a0","_type":"figure","asset":{"_id":"image-53d67b4267bbfab405a2c4b56b47fdaf45f515cb-2818x1564-png","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"uf436WueFkfpL1rOd312Oz","_createdAt":"2026-09-03T21:24:26Z","_updatedAt":"2026-09-03T21:24:26Z","assetId":"53d67b4267bbfab405a2c4b56b47fdaf45f515cb","extension":"png","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","blurHash":"M4R3NH~W-p^+E1_3bHxun%R*ACX8?vNvfk","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":1.8017902813299234,"height":1564,"width":2818},"hasAlpha":false,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAABQAAAALCAIAAADwazoUAAAACXBIWXMAAAsSAAALEgHS3X78AAABZElEQVQokVVSW5LbMAzT/U+XOvnpxlnHlvh+aI/QoT27bfFjeUQAJKgW+Rfuvm3bsiy32+1+vy/L8usbj8fjua7M/FNsZi0jwj0j5pyZyczHcWzb9v4f+74DgIuUg7uZiUhLMxcJ93ki81KrazPz8PhGqiaSEwsLEvU+Woo4katm5MUviQhVE9XI/Jrz61SdqjFABwjzAFxfny323XpXRGOJs/k5p5kREWGJzohiRoRIMQdYfeH3c235uXnvBiiAKsUPD2ERJAFQwBSZ52gygAEMKUQB8GN9tax/DBZHEkThGkgAnNjrjM4czNJHeaqmarAAwPP1apWeqpuFqFUOA4+aIiqs8is5IgY00YyogIlxwPu9t4x0O7MVtbNbPvu/loFEYwAAMrOp1pZUFUmIiLnNn92oXus5zRgRe+/HcYzeAYBF9CzQ8/oqbv88sFKJCDO7mPu+H/sOvcMYzHy51haILqE/eo9WeBeA+RYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#3c3c3c","foreground":"#fff","population":0.03,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#691b27","foreground":"#fff","population":0,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#ca95a0","foreground":"#000","population":0.91,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#ca95a0","foreground":"#000","population":0.91,"title":"#fff"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#fcacc4","foreground":"#000","population":0.01,"title":"#fff"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#a0616e","foreground":"#fff","population":0.14,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#da7282","foreground":"#fff","population":0.01,"title":"#fff"}},"thumbHash":"OQgCBIDLSWh2emeFf2Kqd5B5Bw=="},"mimeType":"image/png","originalFilename":"image.png","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/53d67b4267bbfab405a2c4b56b47fdaf45f515cb-2818x1564.png","sha1hash":"53d67b4267bbfab405a2c4b56b47fdaf45f515cb","size":277677,"uploadId":"f33d515b7232ec8b3382f2a94f81114798daef52","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/53d67b4267bbfab405a2c4b56b47fdaf45f515cb-2818x1564.png","id":"image-53d67b4267bbfab405a2c4b56b47fdaf45f515cb-2818x1564-png","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"c1f6d1fda2331957ef36533603388849","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":3966},"parent":null},"caption":"Figure 3."},{"_key":"a680ce010d0b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d26626c637df0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"When comparing the changes in net migration rates for Japan to the LDP vote share, there is a positive correlation showing that when net migration increases, LDP vote share increases as well, with a 2-year lag. From running a correlation analysis of this relationship, I found a Pearson's r of 0.47, which represents a moderate, positive correlation between these two variables. However, this correlation is not statistically significant with a p-value of 0.166, likely due to the small number of observations (10), which limits the statistical power of the analysis. As with the UK and Germany, migration may be one of several contributing factors driving support for Japan’s primary right-wing party."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a9f08f5f3add","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9162cc703742","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Conclusion"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"943c4edb9ed0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ffdf9495ca0b","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"From the analysis of these three countries, there is a clear positive correlation between changes in net migration and support for right-wing, nationalist political parties. In the UK, Reform UK; in Germany, AfD; and in Japan, LDP: each of these right-wing parties saw an increase in their poll or vote share when net migration increased in their respective countries. It is also important to consider that Reform UK and AfD are up-and-coming parties that are competing against the larger and more established parties, while the LDP has been popular for quite some time. This does not mean that migration is the only factor driving support for these parties, only that it may be one of many contributing factors."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2ea2a4145096","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"59a3b4aa8a41","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Sources"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"1a1c050121fd","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4240a8a6b8da","_type":"span","marks":["a2c407bc6271"],"text":"Japan Polling: "},{"_key":"53bd238ebad11","_type":"span","marks":["a2c407bc6271"],"text":"https://politicaldatayearbook.com/Chart.aspx/84/Japan"},{"_key":"e917528ce63e","_type":"span","marks":["a2c407bc6271"],"text":"​ "}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e027e882f6fb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c84659db54e20","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Japan Immigration: https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/jpn/japan/net-migration​ "}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a923d8e87710","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"cc1d779098520","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Germany Polling: https://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Umfragen/Politbarometer/Langzeitentwicklung_-_Themen_im_Ueberblick/Politik_I/​ "}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d27b6188c8a3","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7fb3da54c9730","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Germany Immigration: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Wanderungen/Tabellen/wanderungen-zwischen-deutschland-und-dem-ausland-jahr-02.html​ "}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"eb436088fdde","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8b9fd906e43d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"UK Polling: https://www.markpack.org.uk/opinion-polls/​ "}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"59024b872e67","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ff6c183e6bd80","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"UK Immigration: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/datasets/longterminternationalimmigrationemigrationandnetmigrationflowsprovisional​ "}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","members":[{"_key":"fee065ca9005","person":{"image":{"crop":null,"hotspot":null,"asset":{"_id":"image-c681009219ad2a4dcb2cff4994cd7679095ac289-2000x2000-jpg"}},"name":"Matthew J. 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